Day 123
Three bets cost me -$1,826: ADBE's earnings calendar from a prior week which I knew was expiring worthless and was due to hit my account, a Tuesday SPX Iron Condor, and a Thursday naked call I bought. The other 30 trades made +$1,759.47, and so my net Profit/Loss for the week was -$66.53. That is the main story - I started staring at a loss and recouped well enough, and while the week is a wash in net dollar terms, the lesson was that I stayed active despite prior and new bad bets which converted the week from being a genuinely bad week to about break-even. If I had gotten conservative and cut back, I would have been looking at a bigger dent in my account.
Portfolio Status
My current net liquidity is ~$59,308, up from ~$58,700 at the last write-up.
Year-to-date P/L by symbol. Open this post on the web to sort and expand the full list.
Open P/L is -$4,227.36, concentrated in CRWV (-$2,428, the extreme bullish bet that went wrong three weeks ago) and SOFI (-$1,808, the uncovered 200 shares I have been carrying since the beginning of the year). These two with combined -$4,236 are the primary items dragging down my account. Commissions and fees for the year total $2,125.95. Finally, net of realized, open, and costs, the year stands at $8,534.53 in profits.
The Week at a Glance
What I Got Wrong
Three trades like I said earlier: ADBE (-$690.24), an SPX Zero-DTE Iron Condor Tuesday morning (-$613.32), and a naked SPX call I bought and dumped six minutes later Thursday (-$522.44). Combined, -$1,826.00. Everything else in the week made +$1,759.47 - the 18 other Zero DTE trades, the CRWV calls, NFLX, LLY, LULU, and ORCL all kept working through and after the bad ones.
ADBE, -$690.24. Sold a double put calendar hours before earnings two Thursdays ago - the short legs expired for +$455 the next day. The long Sep 18 230/220 puts I was left holding expired worthless this week with ADBE closing at $248.92, nowhere near either strike.
SPX Iron Condor, -$613.32. Sold Tuesday morning for $4.60 credit, 10 wide. SPX moved through both short strikes before the close.
SPX naked call, -$522.44. Bought a 7645 call for $10.40 Thursday morning nine seconds after closing two other legs, then sold it back six minutes later for $5.20. I took a short extremely-bullish bet, and regretted it near instantaneously. So I quickly got out to limit my anxiety.
What I Learned
I tried to express an extremely bullish position by buying a Zero DTE naked call, and realized they lose value every second, dramatically. In short, for extreme bullish views it might be better to go a few days or weeks out then trying it on Zero DTE.
It's best to keep Zero DTEs limited to neutral or small bull/bear sentiment, and any extra bullish or bearish behavior be expressed via slightly longer duration trades so that I have time to manage the trade at a smaller loss of capital.
I immediatley applied the learning and do have custom slightly bullish position in SPX that I am hoping to cash in on next week if SPX moves up.
The Trades
As usual, all times are Pacific. Risk is the possible maximum loss, which is spread width minus premium received.
Zero DTE
21 trades, 14 winners, +$469.76.
Open this page on the web to see full list.
Monday and Friday were great. Wednesday was a rough stretch - three separate SPX trades for -$368, -$437, and (Tuesday's) -$613 as the index chopped through my short strikes. Thursday has the naked call (see What I Got Wrong); take that one out and Thursday alone was +$867 on six trades.
Note that my strikes are always slightly outside the expected move for Zero DTEs - at the moment I open the trade.
Earnings Calendars and Diagonals
Nothing new this week, everything was a settlement from prior weeks. 3 trades, 1 winner.
Defined Risk Equity Spreads
LLY was a put credit spread closed early Tuesday for most of the credit. LULU was a same-day call credit spread, in and out Friday.
Undefined Risk
AAPL and HOOD were both strangles that I kept rolling the losing side of for weeks - AAPL's put up four times as it rallied, HOOD's put down four times as it fell - and both finally got closed out this week. NFLX was two short puts, one closed and one sold-and-closed same day. CRWV's three short calls were my attempt to claw back the deep unrealized loss I have in it.
This is an example of an extreme bullish position (I have a naked Call in CRWV) with a longer time to play for - and it is hence allowing me to scalp a few wins to keep eat into the loss I may face if CRWV never moves back up and close to a $100 before my trade expires.
Interactive P/L calendar. Open this post on the web to see the day-by-day breakdown for August and September, filterable by bucket.
Market Recap
SPY is at ~$761, and QQQ is at ~$721. A slow, gradual elevation, nothing too dramatic.
VIX is at 14.81.
Current Positions
Most of my cash is in BIL to earn some interest on idle cash.
I'm leaning bullish, long 185 deltas, collecting about $7 a day in theta out of $1,015 in remaining extrinsic value.
Open names right now: META (ITM bearish position, staring at a loss), GLD (bullish, hoping for a small rise in next 2 weeks), CRWV (bad bet, trying to reduce cost basis actively), MCD (bullish), SPX (extra-bullish), HOOD (extra-bullish), and SPCX (also extra-bullish).
Running Threads
SOFI. Still $1,808 underwater, 200 shares with nothing sold against them. No activity this week.
CRWV. Now -$2,428 underwater on the extra-bullish setup from three weeks ago, unchanged this week, clawed back +$336 using calls I sold.
Earnings calendars. ADBE and RH both settled this week - ADBE for -$690, RH for -$73, and ORCL, the third leg of that same earnings Thursday, closed two weeks ago for +$83. One out of three worked.
HOOD. The old strangle (open since Aug 18) finally closed this week for -$213.75. Closing this thread.
Pre-open SPX. No new trades this week. Cumulative stays at ten trades, $410. Not interested as much in continuing this setup. Closing this thread.
NDX: A look at the new winner in my options portfolio
NDX has been on since July 28, all in the first 30-90 minutes after the open, and it's been the best-performing thing in the account since it started. 12 trades, 11 winners (91.7% win rate), $2,302 net, average max risk of roughly $2,050 per trade. Every strategy I've run on it is net positive so far.
BRWB - Broken-wing butterflies (asymmetric wings, entered for a net credit) are the newer addition and currently the biggest risk-taker of the group by a clear margin - roughly double the average risk of the credit spreads - and they're also the only strategy with a loss on the board, a single call-side butterfly on 8/24. The put-side butterflies since have gone 4 for 4.
My read from these wins is that in a neutral to bullish tech market - I am getting decent wins in a tech index. Not sure how long this will last - I am likely going to get a bit more aggressive on these setups in the next few weeks.
By month:
September is going great so far - its only now I realized the Aug loss shouldn't hold me back and that NDX could be a winner for me. I made $1,791 of the $2,301 total in September, on six trades, all winners. July is a single trade and not a data point at all. August has the one loss, which is also where net P/L for the month is tiny despite four other winners.
What's Next
I have quite a few ultra bullish positions now, I likely will put on some small hedge in those positions, or will size them down.
And I want to be extra bullish on NDX until October. So I am going to likely switch out of BRWB to Pure Credit Spreads.
Thanks for reading.
📌 Disclaimer: Nothing on this site is financial advice - I'm just here to entertain! Here's my introduction, my trading philosophy, and some ground rules.
